Retail: Beta, Multiples & WACC by Sector

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What the numbers say.

The retail sector has shifted a bit this month. It is valued notably higher than a month ago: the median EV/EBIT rose to 11.9x and most companies became more expensive, the beta held at 0.46, and the cost of capital stands at 6.3 %. The sector is more unsettled than in September: the choice of peers and settings moves the value more than it did.

EV/EBIT is the multiple to use

It is the tightest of the multiples the fundamentals explain, a dispersion of 17 % across the 20 companies, and the companies are comparable in ROCE. EV/Sales spreads by 41 % because it carries the margin differences with it.

The beta to use: 5 years, monthly, 0.46

Among the stable settings it has the tightest spread across the 20 companies; R² 19 %, 14 of 20 betas significant, liquid group (median bid-ask spread 0.17 %). It is the smartZebra standard setting. The settings alone move the median beta from 0.22 to 0.47.

Both choices matter

Ten of the twenty companies move the EV/EBIT median by −17 % to +11 %, the settings by up to 48 %. Retail sits in the handle-with-care corner of the map.

Gross margin is not what the market pays for this month

The usual yardsticks for retail: gross margin and EBIT margin. Gross margin: rejected (rank correlation +0.24 with EV/Sales (NTM)). EBIT margin: partly (rank correlation +0.52 with EV/EBIT (NTM+1)). Median EV/Sales (NTM) by sub-group: food retail 0.6x, non-food & e-commerce 0.9x.

EV/EBIT (NTM+1): median 11.5x → 11.9x

17 more expensive · 2 cheaper

Carrefour fell most (−6 %), Zalando rose most (+17 %).

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Beta (5 years, monthly): median 0.46 → 0.46

14 of 20 significant

Each line runs from last month’s beta (light dot) to this month’s (blue dot), on the same beta setting.

Do the usual yardsticks hold this month?

The usual yardsticks for retail, tested on the 20 companies this month.

Each extra point of EBIT margin adds about 0.3x to EV/EBIT.

Gross margin

Rejected

Rank correlation +0.24 with EV/Sales (NTM) · clear link from +0.60

EBIT margin

Partly

Rank correlation +0.52 with EV/EBIT (NTM+1) · clear link from +0.60

Position on the sector map

This sector in gold, the other 19 sectors in blue. Dashed lines at 40 pp are illustrative.

Construction

Chemicals

Utilities

158

Telecom

Media

Travel & Leisure

Retail

Luxury

Consumer Goods

Logistics

Business Serv.

Aero & Defence

Electrical Eq.

Medtech

Pharma

IT Services

Semiconductors

Software

Automotive

Machinery

Retail

How much the choices move the result

Beta and fit

R² (median)

19 %

Significant betas

14 of 20

Median bid-ask spread

0.17 %

Beta range across settings

0.22–0.47

What moves the value?

Change vs. prior month

+3 % vs. September

Peer impact on the median

−17 % to +11 %

Spread from peer choice (pp)

Spread from beta settings (pp)

Position on the sector map

Handle with care

Cost of capital

Cost of equity (CAPM)

“kE = rf + β · MRP”

rf = base rate, MRP = market risk premium, β = sector median beta.

WACC

“WACC = E/(D+E) · kE + D/(D+E) · kD · (1 − t)”

kD = base rate + credit spread; t = peer-average tax rate.

Tax rate

“t = average tax rate of the 20 peers”

Shown above as Tax rate (%).

Selection rules

Best-fit multiple

“lowest dispersion across the 20 companies”

The reference multiple is used only as a fallback.

Beta setting

“tightest spread among stable settings”

Replaces 5y monthly only if it passes the two-month rule.

Status

“|Δ value| ≤ 1 % and |Δ β| ≤ 0.03 → stable”

Up to ±5 % / ±0.06 → shifted a bit; beyond → shifted noticeably.

Scope

The 20 largest European listed companies by market value with core business in food and non-food retail and e-commerce; primary listing on a European exchange; banks, insurers, financial services and real estate are excluded.